**Good Morning. I am back from holiday this week so ‘normal’ service will resume. I’m still up against the August news cycle and have had to work quite hard on today’s newsletter to get it to reflect the historic populist warmth towards Putin and the reality of the deal being put on the table for Ukraine. My usual Claude model (Opus) is down so I’ve used Sonnet if you think it’s lacking punch!
If you like this idea and think it contains useful thoughts please do forward to a friend or colleague. As always take what works, leave what doesn’t. **
TL:DR?
What's Dominating: Major powers are positioning around potential Ukraine peace negotiations, with populist leaders caught between their long-standing Putin accommodation and the current reality.
The Narrative Split: Progressive opportunity: Expose populist pandering to fellow authoritarians vs Populist exploitation: "Finally someone strong enough to end the war."
Why Today Matters: The documented history of populist praise of Putin accommodation is colliding with real-world consequences, creating accountability moments that reveal true loyalties
The Putin Accommodation Reckoning
What Actually Happened
As Ukraine peace discussions intensify, the documented pattern of Western populist leaders accommodating Putin is facing its biggest test. Leaders who spent years providing Putin with legitimacy through "both sides" rhetoric, accepting Russian financing, and echoing Kremlin talking points now face pressure to take clear positions on territorial concessions and security guarantees.
Progressive Pushback Options
If emphasising patterns: "The same leaders who legitimised Putin's early aggressions created the conditions for this crisis"
If demanding accountability: "Years of accommodation taught Putin that Western democracy was weak and divided"
If focusing on consequences: "Rewarding territorial conquest encourages every authoritarian to try the same playbook"
Key Facts
Multiple populist leaders accepted Russian financing or created formal institutional ties with Putin's party
Consistent pattern of "NATO expansion provoked Russia" messaging across different populist movements
Trump called Putin's invasion strategy "genius" and "savvy" during the 2022 escalation
Multiple populists in Europe have received money from Russian sources - including Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini, the German AFD party and Nigel Farage via the now banned RT.
The Accommodation Playbook Exposed: For years, populist leaders systematically weakened Western unity by providing Putin with legitimacy, financial ties, and diplomatic validation. This wasn't random - it followed a clear pattern of "both sides" framing during crises, accepting compromising financial relationships, and amplifying Russian narratives about Western "provocation." The current moment reveals how this accommodation strategy served authoritarian interests under the guise of anti-establishment politics.
What They're Really Feeling: War fatigue and desire for someone to just "solve" complex international problems
The Legitimate Concern: People want leaders who prioritise their immediate concerns over distant geopolitical principles
Address It By: "Appeasement doesn't bring lasting peace - it teaches aggressors that conquest works"
The Winner: The Putin accommodation timeline
The Angle: Interactive timeline showing populist leaders' Putin praise and financial ties contrasted with their current positions, captioned: "Follow the money, follow the messaging"
The Execution:
Create side-by-side video: past quotes defending Putin vs current "tough" stances
Map financial flows from Russian sources to populist movements across Europe and America
Interview voters asking what they knew about their leaders' Russian connections
Why This Works: Exposes systematic pattern without attacking voters' intelligence. Shows how legitimate anti-establishment sentiment was exploited by foreign interests.
Frame It Your Way:
For Putin Accommodation:
Pattern angle: "This wasn't random - it was a systematic strategy to weaken democratic unity"
Accountability angle: "Years of legitimizing Putin created the conditions for this crisis"
Sovereignty angle: "They sold out national independence for political convenience.”
COMPLEXITY MADE SIMPLE
Don't say: "Systematic authoritarian accommodation through financial dependencies"
Do say: "They took Putin's money and pushed Putin's talking points"
Don't say: "Geopolitical realignment undermining collective security frameworks"
Do say: "Weakening alliances helps dictators divide and conquer democracies"
Tomorrow: Watch to see if Farage has to distance himself any further from past Putin comments and how public opinion settles on any peace deal.
Prep: Document the timeline - who said what when about Putin, and what they're saying now. The contrast between crisis-time accommodation and post-crisis repositioning reveals character and true loyalties.
This newsletter is produced using AI - specifically Claude’s Opus 4.0 Model.
It is designed to offer insight and spark ideas but not everything will align with your values and strategy - take what works for you and leave the rest.
It may contain errors - if you’re going big on something here then do double check it!
We are always trying to improve the content by adding evidence about narratives and messaging that work.
We also believe strongly that tackling populism in a way which also strengthens democracy and social cohesion requires a willingness to listen to and engage with people who see the world very differently to us.
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