The Populist Decoder - Reform Conference

The usual Populist Decoder format aims to offer practical suggestions about how to counteract populist narratives. I’ve been clear from the beginning that it is full of suggestion, not prescription - readers should use what works for them and leave what doesn’t, the aim being to provide enough ‘quality fodder’ to drive practical action.  

It seems to be working, I’ve had some really encouraging feedback and will continue to work on the AI prompt which underpins the drafting process (more on that in the P.S if you’re interested). I’m going to struggle to get it out daily because some days there’s not enough news and other days the same story dominates (although hopefully less now the summer is over). 

This weekend’s Reform conference has been a chance to capture content to help me work on my prompt and how I frame the Reform approach to my AI writing partner. 

I’m thinking about 5 areas which I want to add or adapt and thought maybe I should share them for discussion. You might want a coffee for this! 

Coverage which has inspired this includes this write up in Bloomberg, this unsettling report in the Financial Times, a guest BBC piece by psephological phenomena Sir John Curtice and this somewhat breathy dispatch from Chris Mason. I’ve also referred back to this Open Democracy piece on Reform’s funding and re-watched this Led By Donkey’s video on Farage’s support for open borders. 

Here goes (and if you see something that gets you nodding forward this to a colleague!)

One of the brands happy to be seen spending money on Reform’s conference was TikTok . A major boast from the main stage in Birmingham was Reform’s development of an ‘AI-powered central operating system’ built for political use (alongside the new ‘Reform Go’ app). 

The synergy between the centralising power of new AI technologies and the authoritarian tendencies of populist movements is one of the most frightening aspects of the current moment. Donald Trump’s use of Palantir to compile data on Americans is disturbing and the same company made a well-received play to offer its services for next to nothing in the UK. Palantir is now involved in the NHS in ways which frighten many campaigners - but in combination with a Reform government you could expect to see these fears turbo-charged in reality. 

These nightmares not diminished by the track record of major social media and AI companies when it comes to democracy. Since the election of Donald Trump, a pivot to free speech fundamentalism amongst tech leaders who continue to genuflect to the Oval Office, has doubled down on some social media harms as these companies gleefully disband efforts to keep users safe online.  

One friend asked me last week if Reform’s social success wasn’t just a natural consequence of how platforms use algorithmic engagement tactics to sell adverts. It was a good question. The answer is in part, yes, although like most things, it’s not that simple. 

What is simple though is to recognise that many modern technology companies are now the most powerful in history and their leaders have shown they are happy to align with populists.

If you want to manage the risk of Reform in the UK,  more focus on accountability and transparency over the information environment is vital. 

Reform’s desire to ape the Trump administration’s approach in the US is very evident - and not just when it comes to deportation rhetoric. They continue to champion the ‘DOGE’ approach to public spending and across both days at conference there were coded (and not so-coded) references to LGBT rights, unelected bureaucrats, unaccountable judges and the need to promote the UK’s ‘Judeo-Christian’ heritage. 

Reform associated think-tanks are examining ways to navigate the UK’s constitution that could enable them to ape the use of Executive Orders by Donald Trump to override the usual checks and balances in place within the US system. 

The largely unwritten nature of the UK’s constitution and the reliance on precedent as a way of working could be a major vulnerability. A Reform government could use the House of Lords in very different ways to put unelected people in power across government (Starmer has done this too) and could also effectively tear up the Ministerial Code that currently shapes the behaviour of Government Ministers. 

These are very scary propositions but as the failure of ‘Project Fear’ demonstrates they need to be carefully handled. Appropriate resources should be given to planning for inevitable moves against the infrastructure of democracy and civil society but any sense that the UK public will rally to the defence of either if we scream loudly enough should probably be dismissed right now.  

It’s easy to see Reform’s polling success, social media superiority and mass membership momentum and conclude that some sort of masterplan is playing out. This weekend (and Farage’s failed Congress trip) are a welcome reminder that Reform remains highly fallible. 

They might be making some very smart strategic calls and doing the basics well (‘Police the streets not the tweets’ is a Grade A old-school soundbite!) but they are making some bad ones too. 

Putting an anti-vaxxer on stage who suggested Covid jabs contributed to cancer cases in the Royal Family is one example. Perhaps a good moment to remind people Nigel Farage sits on the board of a campaign to ‘reform or replace the WHO’ the manifesto of which reads like a precursor to rolling back public health restrictions on things like tobacco, sugar, alcohol, chemicals in food and of course pulling back on vaccination drives. 

There’s a risk of wasting a lot of time and energy shadow boxing Reform’s strategies rather than executing our own. What they do isn’t rocket science and just because they do it, doesn’t mean we have to.  

Reform’s current platform of talking points is narrow and pretty clearly aligned with the corporate interests bankrolling the party. Despite my doubts anybody in the whole party has ever said the phrase ‘wedge issue’ they are relentless on migration because the way they have framed it means it is actually perceived as a ‘fairness’ issue. This underpins a recent focus on crime more broadly because that’s been linked to migration. The only other significant agenda they have is anti-net zero which again aligns with corporate interests, especially in America and the Middle East. 

This narrow agenda means they do face a challenge when building out a broader policy agenda for government. They managed pretty well last time around with ‘Our Contract with You’ and whilst it will be important to pick holes in the Reform agenda, hopefully we’ve all realised by now that when it comes to winning public opinion it is vibes, not viability that matters most. 

If seeking to use Reform’s emerging agenda against it in the coming years then thinking through the impact on professions and making that real for people (lawyers in a system with no independence, nurses dealing with measles, firefighters tackling wildfires) will matter far, far more than abstract large numbers.    

Whenever I opened Instagram this weekend there was a big red/orange button at the top of my feed flashing with the words ‘Reform UK’. 

The whole conference was livestreamed on social media which has the benefit of ensuring the Reform account is always highlighted whenever there is a broadcast. Livestreams offer audience engagement opportunities (and the data that comes from them) as well as being harder for people to monitor.

 You won’t find a handout of the speeches at the Reform conferences very easily - I had to use the transcripts from You Tube to find out what was said. More use of livestreaming is broadly good advice for social media strategy in the current moment. Have a think about how and why you might do that yourself. 

And Finally.. 

‘Learning from Reform’ might be as simple as i) ensuring community voices are heard and engaged in political action, even if that means compromising on  ii) turning up the dial on social media and moving away from legacy media mindsets and iii) demonstrating the ability to use power in a radical and decisive way that acknowledges systemic quality of life challenges in the UK. 

Doing that well means having a clear eyed view on the challenges facing modern Britain, executing the the longer term trade-offs that need to be made to create the policy space for radical action and shifting to a world of constant dialogue with the public, not the aloof top-down broadcast style favoured across Westminster and Whitehall. 

This newsletter won’t solve any of that and it’s why there are real limits to prioritising ‘countering Reform’ in political strategy across civil society.  

Nevertheless, the risk is real and normal service will be resumed shortly. 

Jonathan

P.S - For those that are interested, I captured the You Tube transcripts from the conference and parsed them using AI (as well as some other pieces) to help shape my thinking for this. You can see the conversations here and here in all their messy glory. As ever, don’t use the AI output wholesale without checking it but it is a handy overview of the whole weekend.